Mekong under threat from climate and dams

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The Mekong River is vital as a source of transport, irrigation and fisheries for the millions who live along its banks.

Originating in Tibet, the Mekong river passes either through or by China, Burma, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. But it is under threat from hydro-electric dams and from climate change

Presenter: Sen Lam
Speaker: Milton Osborne, visiting fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney and author of a new paper on the Mekong River

OSBORNE: In terms of climate change, we are still some distance away from seeing a dramatic change, so far as can be determined by the scientific work that is being done to date. One of the big concerns is, if there is a significant rise in sea level, this will certainly affect in a very significant and negative fashion, the Mekong Delta, which is the major agricultural production area for Vietnam. A very small rise in sea level would led to much of the Mekong Delta being inundated. The longer term concern is the glaciers which feed the Mekong River in the highlands of Tibet are melting and that is going to remove the snow melt that feeds the river. But at the same time as that is occurring, with the expectations of climate change, the possibility is that there will be increased precipitation, which could led in 20 years time to increased flooding on the Mekong. So it's a paradoxical sort of development that is occurring in this second case.

LAM: Indeed, so it's a question of too much water and too little water?

OSBORNE: That could be the concern, but are directed into climate change. The more immediate concerns in relation to the river relate to the possibility first of all, that dams will be built on the course of the river below China. There is no actual certainty about when those dams will be built, but there are plans to build up to 11 dams on the river below China and there is the already established problem that is going to arise from the dams China has built. It's already built three and it's planning to build at least another two. In fact another two are currently under construction.

LAM: Indeed, as you point out that China does control a large proportion of the Mekong River and it's of course enormously more powerful than the other regional countries. Are countries like Laos and Cambodia, for instance, talking to China about managing the river, or is China in a position to just simply do whatever it wants?

OSBORNE: Well, in very bold times, China is in a position and has taken the position that it will decide what is done on that section of the river that runs through its territory. And as you rightly say, 44 percent of the river's overall length is in China. There has been very little consultation between China and the downstream countries and in fact, until very recently, the Chinese have been reluctant even to let people from the governments of Laos and Cambodia and Vietnam visit China to examine the dams the Chinese have built.

LAM: What about the role of the Mekong River Commission? Is it an effective body or is it in need of change and reform?

OSBORNE: The Mekong River Commission is unfortunately, very poorly understood by many people who criticise it. It's regarded incorrectly by its critics as a body that has the right to determine what is done by governments in relation to the Mekong River. But that is not the case at all. It is a body which has a very important role, particularly through its Secretariat in providing scientific and technical information about the river, but it has no powers to mandate what any individual government or group of governments should do in relation to the Mekong River.

LAM: But as far as you know, has it made representations to either China or any of the other regional countries?

OSBORNE: No, and it would not under its charter really have the right to do so.

LAM: And Milton Osborne, on a micro-level, fish stocks I understand, in particular, are being threatened.. but are there technical solutions to this?

OSBORNE: Well, I have to take the guidance provided by scientists so far as technical issues are concerned. And scientists have looked very carefully at whether or not it is possible to overcome the barriers that dams built on the river will provide, if these dams do come to be constructed, to see whether there're ways of mitigating the dams' fact of preventing migration by fish. There are some 900 species of freshwater fish in the Mekong, which at least 80 percent are migratory, moving over long distances. So that if you have dams in the river that block the migration, this will have a dramatic and devastating effect on fish. And the importance of fish becomes very clear when you know that in Cambodia, well over 70 percent of the Cambodian population's protein intake comes from fish taken out of the Mekong and its associated system.