With his assets seizure trial nearing its end, Thaksin Shinawatra may find himself a drowning man clutching desperately at every last straw.
A judgement against him will certainly quash the pardon-Thaksin petition that his supporters submitted in September, shutting down all avenues for him to escape legal punishment.
This has prompted speculation, or fears to be exact, that his red-shirted supporters could run amok before the court is scheduled to hand down the ruling.
Thaksin needs to protect his Bt76 billion assets, perhaps his last resources as far as the public knows, which have been frozen at the request of the Assets Examination Committee. As the court is expected to read its verdict in mid-December at the earliest, if Thaksin were to have any chance of survival he would need the royal pardon before then. But the pardon seems to be drifting in a long process.
If the fugitive ex-premier is found guilty in his Bt76-billion assets case, which is now before the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders, his chances of staging a comeback to politics would be zero. The curtain would be drawn on him. The court won't allow an appeal unless the defendant can produce new evidence. A portion or even all of his assets will be confiscated depending on the court verdict.
Thaksin will also later face criminal charges for malfeasance and dereliction of duty in violation of Article 157. As he violated the law on many counts he may end up getting sentenced to dozens of years in prison.
On the other hand, if Thaksin is found not guilty in the assets case he may feel relieved. He will have only the two-year jail term for the Ratchadaphisek land purchase to serve. His other cases are still just in court.
Yellow-shirted protest leader Sondhi Limthongkul also once said he would not mind if Thaksin was granted a pardon after he surrendered and came back to Thailand.
As nobody, even the fugitive ex-premier, knows how the assets decision will turn out, Thaksin has no choice but to topple the Democrat-led government by all means before the court concludes the case to pave the way for his return.
Thaksin maybe realises that the court might reach a finding sooner rather than later, so he has no time to prolong his battle. He has to end the game sooner rather than later. After using neighbouring country Cambodia to attack Thailand, leading to a dispute between the two countries, the fugitive ex-premier is now blowing the whistle to his supporters to oust the government. That's why his red-shirted supporters moved their rally up.
The red shirts will now kick off their "showdown rally" on Saturday - a day earlier than planned - in a bid to "bring down" the government as soon as possible. The red-shirt leaders expect one million people to join the protest. They would disperse temporarily on December 2 to make way for ceremonies to mark His Majesty the King's birthday on December 5, and re-gather after that.
One week before the rally, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva got death threats from community radio stations in Chiang Mai, which is Thaksin's political base. Abhisit had scheduled to visit the province next Sunday.
During the Songkran mayhem, the premier almost lost his life when his car was attacked by red-shirted people at the Interior Ministry. Some fear that Thaksin's new battle may repeat history.
It would be no surprise if Thaksin sets off on a "kamikaze" mission and takes the country hostage as he has always done - putting his personal interest before the country's.
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